A Novel Approach for Prediction of Mass Yield and Higher Calorific Value of Hydrothermal Carbonization by a Robust Multilinear Model and Regression Trees

This study shows a mathematical and statistical analysis to generate models based on multiple linear regression (MLR) and regression trees (RT) that allow a reliable prediction of the Mass Yield (MY) and the Higher Heating Value (HHV) of the final solid product obtained by Hydrothermal Carbonization, called hydrochar. MLR models were obtained for lignocellulosic and non-lignocellulosic biomass using a set of experimental data with more than 500 points collected from the literature. A new approach based on dimensionless groups of variables that describe the composition of biomass and operational conditions was used. The analysis for each equation indicated that the MY depends on the process conditions and the biomass composition, which is proportional to the Polarity Index (IP) and Reactive Index (IR) values. On the other hand, the severity factor (log Ro) and the initial calorific value (HHVo) were the main factors for the HHV, but also the raw biomass composition (IP and H/C ratio) had an opposite and equal significant effect. For these equations, the results indicated an adjusted R2 (R2a) of about 0.90 and an average RMSE of 6% and 1.7 MJ/kg for MY and HHV, respectively. Besides, explanatory variables were analyzed by their Relative Importance for the RT models. The severity factor (65%) and the IR (18%) were the most decisive variable in the MY prediction. The R2 and RMSE were 0.73 and 2%, respectively. For HHV, the variables with the most significant impact were the HHVo (33%), the log Ro (24%), and the IP (22%). In this case, the R2 and RMSE were 0.87 and 0.68 MJ/kg, respectively. Therefore, the model equations obtained are a powerful tool to predict the mass yield and the energetic value of the hydrochar before developing an experimental study. © 2020 Energy Institute