The Compounded Risks of Extortion: Analyzing Illegal Markets and Institutional Corruption in Mexico

This study extends Protection Theory to predict extortion victimization in Mexican cities, incorporating collective inefficacy and individual vulnerabilities. Utilizing data from the Mexican National Survey of Urban Public Security (ENSU) from 2019 to 2023, we utilize mixed effects models to estimate the impact of organized crime illegal markets, political corruption, collective inefficacy, and individual vulnerabilities. Our results reveal significant interactions between drug markets, Huachicol (illegal fuel) markets, and extortion risk, stressing the compounded risks in cities with powerful illegal markets. Additionally, the interaction between bureaucratic and police corruption exacerbates vulnerability to extortion. This extended model stresses the necessity of addressing detailed aspects of illegal markets, institutional corruption and individual and community vulnerabilities, to understand extortion risks, simultaneously challenging and advancing Protection theory. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2025.